Ray Allen was asked the question, and, really, gave the only answer he could give: Even if the NBA’s lockout winds up costing the league this season, Allen said, sure, his Celtics could come back and challenge for a championship. Heck, Allen said, they might even be better after more than a year of rest.
Nice thought, for sure. But in reality, Allen seems to overlook just how much age will erode the Celtics’ prowess between now and November 2012. And it’s not just the Celtics. If the lockout wipes out this season, the four teams that have accounted for the past five NBA championships (and 11 of the last 13)—the Celtics, Lakers, Mavericks and Spurs—could return rosters that are simply too old to be considered legitimate title contenders.
“We have guys who are lucky they can walk,” point guard Jason Terry jokes, “let alone still play.”
Come next November, the Mavs potentially have a starting lineup made up entirely of 30-somethings, depending on whether they re-sign center Tyson Chandler, who will be 30 by the time next season starts.
Point guard Jason Kidd will be 39 and small forward Shawn Marion will be 34. Star forward Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavs to their title this spring, but can he do that again at age 34?
It’s not as though the Mavericks have a wave of young players in waiting, either—Jason Terry is their bench anchor, and he’ll be 35, while backup center Brendan Haywood will turn 33 next November.
It starts with Kobe Bryant, who has admitted that he’s playing with a bone-on-bone situation in his knee, and will be 34 next season. The Lakers could replace Derek Fisher, who will be 38, at point guard, but his replacement would be 32-year-old Steve Blake. Pau Gasol also will be 32, and Ron Artest will turn 33 in November.
The Lakers would likely have to remake the bench under more restrictive salary rules, which would put more pressure on top reserve Lamar Odom, who will also turn 33 next November.
Fast forward to next November, and Duncan will be 36. Who knows what he’ll be able to contribute then?
The Spurs were fortunate last year that Manu Ginobili’s health held up all year, but he will come back at age 35 next season and it probably wouldn’t be fair to expect him to play at a peak level again.
Tony Parker should be fine, at age 30, but small forward Richard Jefferson will be 32 and has already seen his game slip into decline.
One thing to say for the Spurs, though, is that they’ve at least collected an intriguing group of young players (DeJuan Blair, James Anderson, Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Davis Bertans) who could be the base of the team in the future.
With no other options, Boston could be forced to keep Jermaine O’Neal at center—O’Neal will be 34, but has the knees of a much, much older player.
Rajon Rondo will round out the lineup at point guard but remember, the Heat ran rings around that starting five in the playoffs last year.
The Celtics could benefit by figuring out how to work in versatile forward Jeff Green, acquired at the trade deadline for Kendrick Perkins, and rookie JaJuan Johnson, but as long as the team is centered on the Big Three, age will be a huge problem.
Nice thought, for sure. But in reality, Allen seems to overlook just how much age will erode the Celtics’ prowess between now and November 2012. And it’s not just the Celtics. If the lockout wipes out this season, the four teams that have accounted for the past five NBA championships (and 11 of the last 13)—the Celtics, Lakers, Mavericks and Spurs—could return rosters that are simply too old to be considered legitimate title contenders.
DALLAS
The Mavericks were an old team even as they made their surprise run to last year’s championship.“We have guys who are lucky they can walk,” point guard Jason Terry jokes, “let alone still play.”
Come next November, the Mavs potentially have a starting lineup made up entirely of 30-somethings, depending on whether they re-sign center Tyson Chandler, who will be 30 by the time next season starts.
Point guard Jason Kidd will be 39 and small forward Shawn Marion will be 34. Star forward Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavs to their title this spring, but can he do that again at age 34?
It’s not as though the Mavericks have a wave of young players in waiting, either—Jason Terry is their bench anchor, and he’ll be 35, while backup center Brendan Haywood will turn 33 next November.
LOS ANGELES
The Mike Brown Era figures to get off to an awkward start no matter what happens, but if this season is lost, he will face an even tougher situation—championship expectations with a very old lineup.It starts with Kobe Bryant, who has admitted that he’s playing with a bone-on-bone situation in his knee, and will be 34 next season. The Lakers could replace Derek Fisher, who will be 38, at point guard, but his replacement would be 32-year-old Steve Blake. Pau Gasol also will be 32, and Ron Artest will turn 33 in November.
The Lakers would likely have to remake the bench under more restrictive salary rules, which would put more pressure on top reserve Lamar Odom, who will also turn 33 next November.
SAN ANTONIO
Over the last two years, the Spurs have done the inevitable—they’ve acknowledged that star forward Tim Duncan can’t be relied upon for 20 points and 10 rebounds nightly anymore.Fast forward to next November, and Duncan will be 36. Who knows what he’ll be able to contribute then?
The Spurs were fortunate last year that Manu Ginobili’s health held up all year, but he will come back at age 35 next season and it probably wouldn’t be fair to expect him to play at a peak level again.
Tony Parker should be fine, at age 30, but small forward Richard Jefferson will be 32 and has already seen his game slip into decline.
One thing to say for the Spurs, though, is that they’ve at least collected an intriguing group of young players (DeJuan Blair, James Anderson, Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Davis Bertans) who could be the base of the team in the future.
BOSTON
It’s hard to see how Allen can envision the Celtics’ Big Three continuing on a championship level next November, with Paul Pierce at 35, Kevin Garnett 36 and Allen 37.With no other options, Boston could be forced to keep Jermaine O’Neal at center—O’Neal will be 34, but has the knees of a much, much older player.
Rajon Rondo will round out the lineup at point guard but remember, the Heat ran rings around that starting five in the playoffs last year.
The Celtics could benefit by figuring out how to work in versatile forward Jeff Green, acquired at the trade deadline for Kendrick Perkins, and rookie JaJuan Johnson, but as long as the team is centered on the Big Three, age will be a huge problem.
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